On the road toward the autonomous truck
On the road toward the autonomous truck
Opportunities for OEMs and suppliers
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants GmbH Automotive Competence Center January 2015
Introduction Four megatrends will shape and transform the truck industry in the period through 2025 to make it EFFICIENT, GREEN, CONNECTED and SAFE. The importance of SAFE is set to rise in the coming years. Efforts to increase truck safety were strongly focused on reducing the impact of truck-related accidents in the past. Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) now offer the opportunity to achieve accident-free transportation. With fewer traffic-related deaths and lower transportation costs, the expected benefits of ADASenabled (limited) self-driving trucks are compelling. Today, over 90% of all motor vehicle accidents are caused by human error and were responsible for 26,000 deaths in 2013 in Europe alone. The potential of automated driving in avoiding or mitigating accidents is huge. The European Commission has therefore mandated that from 2015 onward all newly registered trucks must be equipped with lane departure warning systems (LDWS) and from 2018 onward with advanced emergency braking systems (AEBS). Furthermore, advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) will reduce the total costs of ownership (TCO) of trucks. Today, the two largest factors in truck total cost of ownership are fuel and driver costs. Functions that are available today, such as adaptive cruise control (ACC), already enable fuel savings. In the future, vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communication will greatly increase savings potential. The second-largest cost factor, the driver, will still need to be in the cabin – at least for the next decade. However, in highly automated trucks, drivers will now have time to engage in productive work like planning the next delivery, or enjoy some leisure time. "Limited self-driving trucks are not expected to reach series-production readiness before 2025. The technology is almost there, but legal hurdles have to be overcome", states Sebastian Gundermann, Partner in the Automotive Competence Center. > From a technical perspective, the main need for innovation is on the software side. Systems must orchestrate highly complex driving behaviors and have a fail-operational architecture that protects against technical failure and covers system malfunction. In addition, the per-unit costs need to be further reduced. > A new legal (end insurance) framework is required before any autonomous trucks can drive on public roads. Today, autonomous driving is prohibited by law. Key questions to be addressed by a revised legal framework are liability (OEMs, suppliers, drivers) and criteria to determine if the vehicle meets the required safety standards. The trend toward autonomous driving requires action from both OEMs and suppliers. Roles and responsibilities will be strongly influenced by the stage of automation. For OEMs, the main task now is to prepare technologically for automated trucks by further developing ADAS understanding on the vehicle and system level in-house. For suppliers, the future focus must encompass both technology (sensor and software development) and effective business models (for providing both complete systems and ADAS components only).
To read more : https://www.rolandberger.com/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_Toward_the_autonomous_truck_20150126.pdf