10 Million Self-Driving Cars Will Hit The Road By 2020 -- Here's How To Profit
Given the advanced state of driverless technologies and the amount of money being poured into the sector, there is little question—make that, no question at all—that within 10 years, driverless cars will be the norm.
The implications are immense and widespread.
There are currently about 1.4 billion cars on the road. Many of those cars, and eventually all, are going to be replaced by self-driving vehicles.
Car sharing is already growing in popularity. When getting a ride someplace is as easy and inexpensive as ordering an automated Uber, we can expect a significant percentage of people to realize car ownership is a thing of the past.
The companies that take the lead with the best and brightest self-driving cars will do very well. Those that are late to the game or fail to impress will soon dry up and blow away.
Conservative Prediction: 10 Million Self-Driving Cars by 2020
As I said above, my research leads me to believe that there will be 10 million self-driving cars on the road by 2020, with one in four cars being self-driving by 2030.
But I think those estimates (especially the one for 2030) are too conservative.
That’s because the technology adoption cycle has been steadily compressing.
While it took approximately 50 years for electricity to be adopted by 60% of US households, it took cell phones only about 10 years and, though it’s not shown on the chart, smartphones only about five years to reach the same penetration.
Once the first self-driving cars go on sale, who will want to buy an obsolete manual driving one? It would be like eschewing a push button telephone in favor of one with a rotary dial. Who would do that?