ADAS could cut crashes 15% by 2030; repairers, insurers, fleets have recalibration ‘duty of care’

ICDP last month announced a simulation predicted a 15 percent decrease in crashes and a 23 percent decrease in repairs in “the four main European markets” by 2030.

The European collaborative aftermarket distribution researcher’s findings for France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom are similar to predictions by American consultants KPMG, for ICDP did predict repair costs would rise for the crashes that did make it into shops.

“Severe accident damage will be reduced, but write-offs will increase due to the higher cost of repairs and parts on more complex vehicles,” ICDP wrote, concluding the net effect would be a 17 percent decrease (€7 billion a year, which works out to $8.18 billion USD) in the “value of the repair market.”

The 23 percent reduction in collision repairs was “only slightly compensated for by higher repair costs,” ICDP wrote.

“For parts producers, including car manufacturers, the loss of profit will be significant – we estimate that across all parts and players, gross margins are around 40%,” ICDP wrote. This will affect car manufacturers the most as they will also be suffering during the same timeframe from the growing share of electrical vehicles which have a much lower service parts requirement. For bodyshops and insurers, the situation will vary widely by market as each national market has different characteristics in terms of the way that insurers influence the market and the profits that can be retained by the Bodyshop.”

“It’s a worse level of reduction than when we looked at the service and maintenance sector 10 years ago and hopefully it acts as a wake up call for the industry,” ICDP managing director Steve Young told the International Bodyshop Industry Symposium last month, according to IBIS/bodyshop magazine. “The collision repair industry is going to be a fascinating space in the coming years.”

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